Sensor Nicholas Saka (North Bergen) and Brian Stack (Dunion City) have a lot in common.

They are both white politicians from predominantly Latin American cities in Hudson County. They have both served as omnipotent mayors of these cities for decades, Stack since 2000 and Saka since 1991. And they are both of the few remaining politicians who hold both legislative and local positions, winning each position before the new effect rules were introduced in 2007.

In 2023, the two men may have something else in common: the Legislature. How the Legislative Distribution Commission works completion of the map of the next decadeone possibility is that the hometowns of Saka and Stack can be combined into one district to solve Hudson County population growth and prevent Jersey City share three paths.

So if such a card happens, who will have the advantage between Saka and Stack? Judging by their performance in the last election, the signs seem to point to a stack.

In the 2021 primary election to the state Senate, Stack received 8,151 votes from Union City and Saka only 4,403 from North Bergen, although they have about the same population (Union City has 66,455 people versus 60,773 in North Bergen). . This suggests that Stack is better supported by primary voters in his hometown, who are expected to be his most ardent supporters in the race between the incumbent president.

The stack also went better around the area; Last year, he received 1,5,560 votes against 9,832 for Saka, indicating that Stack’s ability to vote goes beyond Union City. (But the Stack district is somewhat more democratic than the Saka district, so this is a misconception.)

When they were last re-elected mayors in their hometowns, Stack received 11,208 votes without opposition in 2018, and Saka received 8,907 votes in the controversial 2019 race – in other words, something like a wash.

There are a number of reservations to this comparison. First, the current incarnation of the card is not final, and the distribution commission can still find a way to keep Saka and Stack in separate areas.

On the other hand, even if Union City and North Bergen are combined, there is no guarantee that Saka and Stack will face each other; one can step aside, especially if Hadzan’s democratic establishment prefers. Stack, as the younger of the two men and chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee (Saka does not chair any committee), seems more likely to take over the mantle if that were the case.

On the other hand, the area that unites the two cities will not be equal parts of both, and in fact is likely to include more of Saka’s current territory than Stack.

Even though Steck and Saka have their hometowns, Saka has represented cities like Gutenberg and Western New York for the past decade (although Steck has represented many of them ten years before) – and those cities are likely to be included in a new district than current Stack voters in Jersey City and Hoboken.

All other things being equal, Stack is likely to be initially favored against Saka, although much will depend on how the county lines look and how the Hudson County Democratic Establishment reacts.

Early complaints about Stack’s dismantling are just one of a number of complex considerations that incumbents and parties need to make when the final legislative map is drafted and adopted.

If Stack is removed from his current constituency, can MP Raj Mukherjee (Jersey City) take a new Senate seat with Asian opportunities? In Essex County, if the county of Senator State and former Gov. Richard Cody (D. Roseland) merges with County Senator Nia Gil (D. Montclair), can he use his past history of representing Moncler to defeat Gil in his hometown?

It is expected that the democratic members of the commission will try prevent as many active battles as possible as far as possible. But a small number is likely to be inevitable – and the current leaders are facing difficult decisions ahead.

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