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The undefeated Miami Dolphins visit Cincinnati on a short week and below, we have our favorite picks and Dolphins vs. Bengals player picks for Thursday night.
Dolphins vs. Bengals predictions: How to bet on props Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Mixon and Tyreek Hill
Tua Tagavailoa’s stats: 256.5 passing yards or less (-120 or better)
Tua will be playing through ankle and back problems, but even if he was at full health, he has a tough task ahead of him.
Even though Cincy hasn’t faced the best QBs yet, the Bengals have allowed just 224.7 passing yards per game and 9.9 yards per pass.
In the 2021 season, Cincy allowed a similarly low 10.1.
While Tagovailoa will make some plays when Hill and Waddle are there, a healthy Bengals secondary should be able to keep him below that number while Miami relies more heavily on its running game.
Joe Mixon Player Stats: Over 2.5 Receptions (+133 or better)
Mixon has been cleared of any injury related to his sore ankle before Thursday’s game.
But that may mean little when you consider that Cincy’s offensive line has contributed to the third-fewest RB yards per carry (3.13) and the Dolphins’ defensive front is allowing the fifth-lowest RB yards per attempt (3.46).
So we could see more short passes to Mixon as a replacement for the run. Mixon already has 20 targets in three games, setting them with 13 receptions.
The Dolphins have also given up 20 receptions to running backs in the first three weeks, nine of them to Devin Singletary of the Bills in Week 3.
Tyreke Hill Player Stats: All-time TD Scorer (+135 or better)
It really doesn’t need much analysis. Hill has incredible speed and can score anytime and anywhere he has the ball.
Hill has two scores in three games, and while the Bengals have allowed just one touchdown, it’s a naturally volatile trend.
The fact that Hill sat out Week 3 while Waddle is dealing with the aforementioned groin issue could also contribute to increased touches for the explosive wideout.
Tee Higgins’ Player Stats: Over 5.5 Receptions (+120 or better)
Sticking to our belief, the Bengals can succeed on Thursday, even if by sheer volume, which is a prop we like at an attractive price.
Higgins was a modest 2-27 in the opener against the Steelers, but it was just over 25 snaps as he left the game early with a concussion.
In two complete games, he has 11 receptions on 17 targets. With Xavien Howard likely to shadow Ja’Mar Chase for a significant portion of the game, Higgins is sure to have another busy night on Thursday.
Miami allowed 40 strikeouts through three games, and Higgins recorded at least six receptions on eight occasions last season, with half of those occasions coming at home.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Same-Game: Joe Barrow’s SGP player props
Bengals ML + Joe Burrow 225+ passing yards (-108 or better)
Miami travels on a short week against the defending AFC champions, who are focused on evening their record after a surprising 0-2 start.
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (groin) also have injury concerns, despite both being expected to play.
The Bengals lost at home in Week 1 after going 6-4 in Cincy last season, but this group is expected to thrive in front of a friendly prime-time crowd, as evidenced by the sharpness of the individual money line.
But for one thing, Cincy’s offensive line struggled to open up any running lanes for Joe Mixon early on, which could lead to another busy night for the Burrows.
The 225-yard threshold is something a talented QB should have a very good chance of breaking, as sportsbooks peg his line at 276.5 yards.
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